England v Sri Lanka

500 complete T20 matches are played ball by ball between the two named XIs, in your browser, using each player's record by phase of the innings and by type of bowling — the same simulator behind the Match Center's Predict Winner. The toss is not known, so each side bats first in half of them. The share of matches a side wins is its forecast.

On 500 matches the sampling margin is about four points either way, which is why running it again moves the number a little. A forecast inside that margin of 50–50 is a coin toss, and the page says so rather than naming a favourite.

This is a pre-match read: it does not look at the score, unlike the win probability on the Live tab, and it does not change as the match is played. A player the model has never seen is stood in as an average player, and named beneath the result.