Track record

How often our predictions came true — the pre-match forecast, the win % as the match is played, and the projected total, graded against 100 finished matches in the archive.

Pre-match favourite won

31%

4 of 13 forecasts saved before the first ball

In-play: the side we had ahead won

78%

338 of 433 readings, after 5, 10 and 15 overs of each innings

Projected total after 10 overs

±23 runs

off the final total on average, over 77 innings

Before the first ball

Did the side our pre-match forecast favoured go on to win?

Saved before the first ball

31%

Called 4 of 13 matches right

The true record: taken once both XIs are named and kept unchanged, whatever happens.

Who's ahead, as the match is played

After 5, 10 and 15 overs of each innings: did the side our win % had ahead go on to win?

50%
coin toss

71%

5 ov

70%

10 ov

71%

15 ov

85%

5 ov

89%

10 ov

84%

15 ov

The figure under each bar is how many matches were graded there. A chase won before 15 overs has no 15-over reading.

When it said…

Every in-play reading above, grouped by how sure it was. A well-judged win % lands on its tick: of the times it said about 70%, that side should have won about 70% of them.

Said 50–60%

won 65% of 82

Said 60–70%

won 62% of 77

Said 70–80%

won 71% of 76

Said 80–90%

won 86% of 81

Said 90–100%

won 97% of 117

The projected first-innings total

How far the projection was from the total the side actually made.

After 5 overs

±28

runs off, on average

within 10 runs

21%

within 20 runs

44%

Tends to run 10 low · 78 innings

After 10 overs

±23

runs off, on average

within 10 runs

19%

within 20 runs

48%

Tends to run 7 low · 77 innings

After 15 overs

±13

runs off, on average

within 10 runs

53%

within 20 runs

79%

Tends to run 4 low · 76 innings

Series by series

Tap a row to see it on its own.

Series	Matches	Pre-matchsaved	In-playside ahead won	Projectionafter 10 ov
Bilateral internationals	27	27%3/11	77%93/121	±2722 inns
Asian Games in Japan Men's	14	—2 so far	72%28/39	±197 inns
Caribbean Premier League	38	—	74%133/180	±2132 inns
Namibia T20 Tri-Series	7	—	91%32/35	±216 inns
Lanka Premier League	14	—	90%52/58	±2410 inns

Faded figures rest on fewer than 10 matches.

How this is graded

Pre-match forecast. Graded on the percentage the forecast tab showed when it was saved: since 11 October 2026, the share of the 500 simulated matches each side won; from 27 September to 10 October, that share weighed for how sure it has proved and combined with each side's team strength. A player the data does not know is stood in as a newcomer. It counts as right when the side it favoured won. A 50–50 forecast makes no call and isn't counted.
Saved before the first ball. From 27 September 2026 each forecast is saved once both XIs are named and before the first ball, and it is never changed. The figure is shown once 10 saved forecasts have been graded, so a handful of matches can't read like a trend.
In-play win %. Read exactly as the match's own screen shows it, at the end of the 5th, 10th and 15th overs. It counts as right when the side it had ahead (over 50%) won. A reading taken on the ball that ended an innings isn't counted: by then the match was decided.
Projected total. The first innings only (a chase has a target instead), against the total the side actually made.
Left out. Matches with no winner (abandoned, no result, tied), 9 here. Rain-shortened matches are left out of the in-play grades (8 here), because their readings are now worked out on a length nobody knew at the time.
Small samples. A figure resting on fewer than 10 matches is marked, and faded in the table. One lucky match shouldn't read like a trend.