Asian Games in Japan Men's 2026
How often our predictions came true, graded against 14 finished matches in the archive.
Pre-match favourite won
—
2 forecasts saved before the first ball and graded so far; shown from 10.
In-play: the side we had ahead won
72%
28 of 39 readings, after 5, 10 and 15 overs of each innings
Projected total after 10 overs
±19 runs
off the final total on average, over 7 innings small sample
Before the first ball
Did the side our pre-match forecast favoured go on to win?
Saved before the first ball
2 forecasts saved and graded so far. The figure appears once 10 have been, so a handful of matches can't read like a trend.
The true record: taken once both XIs are named and kept unchanged, whatever happens.
Who's ahead, as the match is played
After 5, 10 and 15 overs of each innings: did the side our win % had ahead go on to win?
50%
coin toss
coin toss
5 ov
7
10 ov
7
15 ov
7
5 ov
7
10 ov
6
15 ov
5
The figure under each bar is how many matches were graded there. A chase won before 15 overs has no 15-over reading.
When it said…
Every in-play reading above, grouped by how sure it was. A well-judged win % lands on its tick: of the times it said about 70%, that side should have won about 70% of them.
Said 50–60%
won 60% of 5
Said 60–70%
won 50% of 6
Said 70–80%
won 50% of 6
Said 80–90%
won 67% of 9
Said 90–100%
won 100% of 13
The projected first-innings total
How far the projection was from the total the side actually made.
After 5 overs small sample
±25
runs off, on average
within 10 runs
14%
within 20 runs
71%
Tends to run 8 high
· 7 innings
After 10 overs small sample
±19
runs off, on average
within 10 runs
29%
within 20 runs
57%
Tends to run 7 high
· 7 innings
After 15 overs small sample
±8
runs off, on average
within 10 runs
71%
within 20 runs
86%
Tends to run 7 low
· 7 innings
How this is graded
- Pre-match forecast. Graded on the percentage the forecast tab showed when it was saved: since 11 October 2026, the share of the 500 simulated matches each side won; from 27 September to 10 October, that share weighed for how sure it has proved and combined with each side's team strength. A player the data does not know is stood in as a newcomer. It counts as right when the side it favoured won. A 50–50 forecast makes no call and isn't counted.
- Saved before the first ball. From 27 September 2026 each forecast is saved once both XIs are named and before the first ball, and it is never changed. The figure is shown once 10 saved forecasts have been graded, so a handful of matches can't read like a trend.
- In-play win %. Read exactly as the match's own screen shows it, at the end of the 5th, 10th and 15th overs. It counts as right when the side it had ahead (over 50%) won. A reading taken on the ball that ended an innings isn't counted: by then the match was decided.
- Projected total. The first innings only (a chase has a target instead), against the total the side actually made.
- Left out. Matches with no winner (abandoned, no result, tied), 6 here. Rain-shortened matches are left out of the in-play grades (1 here), because their readings are now worked out on a length nobody knew at the time.
- Small samples. A figure resting on fewer than 10 matches is marked, and faded in the table. One lucky match shouldn't read like a trend.