Bangladesh v Sri Lanka

500 complete T20 matches are played ball by ball between the two named XIs, in your browser, using each player's record by phase of the innings and by type of bowling — the same simulator behind the Match Center's Predict Winner. The toss is not known, so each side bats first in half of them.

Each side's percentage is the share of the 500 matches it won, so the numbers add up: 302 wins of 500 is 60%. A tie counts for neither side. Under 55% is too close to call. Treat it as a guide rather than a promise: tested on over 1,700 T20s, the side it favoured won a little more often than not.

This is a pre-match read: it does not look at the score, unlike the win probability on the Live tab, and it does not change as the match is played. A player the model has never seen is stood in as a newcomer — a little below the typical player — and named beneath the result. Running it again moves the numbers by a few points.