Do dot balls make batters crack?
Commentators say a few dots in a row bring a wicket. We checked 1.9 million T20 balls. The wicket never comes, but batters do get stuck, and sixes come in bunches.
They don't crack. They freeze.
No extra wickets
A run of dots does not make a wicket more likely.
Batters get stuck
After the powerplay, dots lead to more dots. The singles dry up.
Sixes come in bunches
After a six, another six is more likely.
The wicket never comes
About 5 balls in every 100 take a wicket. That stays the same whether the batter has just faced no dots or five in a row. What goes up is the chance of another dot.
See the numbers
| Dots in a row before | Another dot | Wicket |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | 32.0 | 5.2 |
| 1 | 34.9 | 5.3 |
| 2 | 38.3 | 5.2 |
| 3 | 40.8 | 5.2 |
| 4 | 43.2 | 5.2 |
| 5+ | 46.0 | 5.5 |
Batters get stuck, but not in the powerplay
Part of the rise in dots is simply who is batting and when. A new batter facing a good bowler plays more dots anyway. We took that out and kept only the extra dots caused by the run of dots itself.
In the first six overs, dots are normal, so a run of them changes nothing. Later in the innings, a stuck batter stays stuck: the quick singles dry up, and at the death even the boundaries dry up. In no part of the innings did a run of dots lead to more wickets.
After a six, look for another
Sixes come in bunches, in every part of the innings. And the old line that a batter gets out just after hitting a boundary? The opposite is true. Wickets are slightly less likely on the next ball.
Myth or fact?
Dot balls build pressure that brings a wicket.MythWickets stay at 5 in 100.
Dots lead to more dots.FactAfter the powerplay, most of all at the death.
Batters get out just after hitting a boundary.MythThey are slightly less likely to.
Sixes come in bunches.FactIn every part of the innings.
- Every legal ball from 8,472 men's T20 matches, 2005 to 2026: internationals plus 11 leagues including the IPL, BBL, CPL and PSL. Ball-by-ball data from cricsheet.org.
- A "run of dots" is the dots one batter faced in a row. Leg byes count as dots, as on a scorecard.
- To find the extra dots caused by the run itself, a computer model predicted each ball from the batter, the bowler, the pitch, the over, the wickets down and the chase. We then compared what happened with what it predicted.