What a wicket costs
A wicket in the first over costs a T20 side about 12 runs; one in the last over, about 1. But the wickets that hurt most are the fifth and sixth.
12 runs early, 1 run late. Unless it's the fifth.
Earlier costs more
A wicket in the first over costs a side about 12 runs. In the last over, about 1.
The fifth and sixth hurt most
A wicket on the last ball of the powerplay costs about 17 runs if it is the fifth, and about 7.5 if it is the first.
Dearer than they used to be
Since 2023, an early wicket costs about 3 runs more than it did.
The earlier it falls, the more it costs
We looked at what teams went on to score from every point of an innings, and compared sides at the same point but one wicket further down. A wicket in the first over takes about 12 runs off the final total. The cost falls steadily from there, to about 9 runs halfway through and about 1 in the last over, when there is little left to lose.
See the numbers
| Over | Runs lost | Over | Runs lost |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12.4 | 11 | 8.3 |
| 2 | 12.1 | 12 | 7.8 |
| 3 | 11.7 | 13 | 7.2 |
| 4 | 11.4 | 14 | 6.5 |
| 5 | 11.0 | 15 | 5.8 |
| 6 | 10.7 | 16 | 5.0 |
| 7 | 10.3 | 17 | 4.1 |
| 8 | 9.8 | 18 | 3.2 |
| 9 | 9.4 | 19 | 2.3 |
| 10 | 8.9 | 20 | 1.3 |
A wicket is counted as falling at the start of its over, for a side with the usual number of wickets down at that point: about one after 5 overs, two or three after 10, four after 15.
The fifth and sixth wickets hurt most
Which wicket it is matters as much as when it falls. Take a wicket on the last ball of the powerplay, the sixth over. If it is the side's first wicket, it costs about 7.5 runs. If it is the fifth, it costs about 17, more than twice as much, and the sixth about 19. From the fourth wicket on, the batters still to come are the ones sides would rather send in late.
See the numbers for overs 10 and 15 too
| Wicket | Last ball of over 6 | Last ball of over 10 | Last ball of over 15 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 7.5 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| 2nd | 9.3 | 5.7 | 1.8 |
| 3rd | 10.1 | 6.3 | 2.1 |
| 4th | 13.7 | 9.0 | 3.1 |
| 5th | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.6 |
| 6th | 18.7 | 14.4 | 6.4 |
| 7th | 16.7 | 14.4 | 7.8 |
| 8th | 14.9 | 14.1 | 10.0 |
Later in the innings the peak moves down the order. On the last ball of over 10, the sixth and seventh wickets cost most, about 14 runs each. On the last ball of over 15, the eighth costs more than any before it.
Wickets cost more than they used to
Since 2023, a wicket in the first over has cost about 14 runs, against 11 between 2015 and 2022; halfway through, about 10 against 8. With sides scoring faster, there are more runs to lose when a batter goes.
- Every first innings in men's T20 cricket since 2015: 7,355 innings from internationals and the major leagues. Ball-by-ball data from cricsheet.org.
- For every point of an innings we took what the side went on to score from there, and compared sides at the same point that were one wicket apart. A smooth curve, the same kind the Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method uses, evens out positions that rarely happen.
- First innings only. In a chase, what a wicket costs is a chance of winning, not runs, which is a different question.
- Sides that lose early wickets are sometimes on a hard pitch or facing a strong attack, and some of that is in these figures too.